Everything is set and ready to go. Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.
Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area. All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area. Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening. Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.
Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch. We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model). Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.
Accumulations:
Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday. Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″. Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.
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