Look's like December will Roar in here like a Lion!

        Today will be fair and mild with increasing clouds and breezes later in the day. Tomorrow morning we’ll be brushed by a weak system moving by to our north and east. Only a slight chance for showers in the Wasatch tomorrow morning with the highest chances close to the Idaho border. Snow levels will be relatively high near 7,000 ft and we don’t expect anything more than a dusting anywhere. Temps will drop by 10 degrees or so behind the front on Monday, but will warm up as a ridge rebuilds through Wednesday.

     

       Attention then turns to the next, more significant system dropping down from the Gulf of AK. It will mostly affect coastal areas of California, Oregon and Washington through the end of the work week. We’ll be under a moist southwest flow so it is possible to see a couple showers on Thursday/Friday, but it won’t be until later in the day on Saturday (Dec 1) that the system will really start to move inland. Still a lot of questions as to the overall strength and how well this system will hold together as it moves across the Great Basin, but we think it definitely has potential to be significant. Snow levels will likely be well above the valley floors so it could be another good base-building wet snow for the resorts. Lots of details still have to be worked out but next weekend looks to be our return to active weather. Stay tuned . . . 

Saturday Dec. 1st

Sunday Dec. 2nd

Monday Dec. 3rd

 CLICK HERE FOR LATEST COMPUTER MODEL

The Graphs below are from the Climate Prediction Center, they are showing Utah having a 40-50% chance of precipitation between Nov.30th-Dec.7th

Add caption

       

Saturday's Waffle Nov. 17th Forecast

After last weekend's historic snow storm (pic below) you can leave the snow apparel home this Saturday and come out and enjoy an authentic Liege Waffle!

Morning will be a bit on the chilly side with mostly cloudy skies and the possibility of a shower or too around. 

 

Opening temperature will be in the low 30's with a mid-day temperature around 50.

On a side note, check out Pumpkin Praline it is the flavor of the week. You will not be disappointed.

 

You can find them @ the Olympic Hills Shopping Center (3900 S Wasatch Blvd) from 8am to noon. 

Come stop in!

Pic from last Saturday

 

Old Man Winter Will Be Busting Down The Door

For the last 5 days or so models have been showing the front entering Northern Utah late Thursday evening and moving the SLC area around midnight. Now both the NAM and GFS are showing a delay in the onset of precipitation until late morning Friday. Not a ton of moisture with the initial front but could see a brief period of moderate to heavy snow in the mountains and lighter snow in the valley during the day Friday. There may be a break after the front on Friday evening before the instability and moisture associated with the cold pool move into the area. Friday night and Saturday we’ll see the best dynamics and the best orographics for widespread moderate to heavy snowfall. There will be a good chance for lake enhancement or a lake effect band downwind of the lake. Best guess right now would be east-southeast of the lake. Over southern Davis County and Northern Salt lake County toward Park City. We’ll have to monitor the lake effect situation as we get closer as it is notoriously difficult to forecast.

When we look at the two aspects of this system, the front and instability behind the front, we can split the system into two separate parts to make our snowfall predictions. The initial front on Friday looks like it will put down 4-8″ for the mountains and only a couple inches in the valleys. Then the cold pool on Saturday has potential to drop up to 6″ in the valleys with more than that possible under lake effect band if one sets up. The mountains will likely see over a foot of snow on Friday night-Saturday night time frame. There isn’t incredible moisture associated with the system. But the direction of the flow aloft will allow for good orographics and the cold air will create very high snow:water ratios so just 1 inch of liquid qpf will likely yield 18 inches of snow.

With all that in mind, by midday Sunday, we expect the following totals:
1-2 feet above 7,000 ft. (with possibly more in orographically favored areas or under lake effect band)
6-12 inches in mountain valleys / high benches of Wasatch Front
Up to 6″ on valley floors

Next week is still a little unclear but it’s looking like we may be clipped by another system mid-week however it looks weaker/warmer. We’ll keep our focus on the storm at hand for now.

Snow, and lots of it, looking likely late this week!

Models have been in fairly good agreement for several days but confidence continues to increase as we move closer to the event as the global models are less likely to back track from here on out. After a few more warm, dry days, the weather will change dramatically to a very cold, snowy pattern. Timing still looks like the initial front will move through Thursday night and snow levels will drop Friday to all valley floors. Good orographics and decent moisture behind the front will allow for snow to continue in the mountains and on and off in the valleys for much of Friday night and Saturday. Lake effect snow is also a very good bet with cold, moist air traveling over the relatively warm GSL–this is very hard to forecast so we’ll have to wait until we get closer before we make any exact lake effect forecasts, but be aware that the possibility exists for it.

Later we’ll have a full update where we’ll take a first look at potential snowfall totals. Hint: they have potential to be significant for all elevations.

Looking like we may see a couple more systems trying to dive into the area next week as well. The ski areas should open on time at least!

CPC showing 50% chance of above normal precip for Nov 9th-13th.

November Outlook

 

It is the dawn of a new month and an exciting one at that — November is generally when the Wasatch range starts building its snowpack and ski resorts throughout the area start turning their lifts. October was a month of teasers for the most part with the occasional dusting high up in the first two weeks of the month and then the third week we saw our first major system. That system favored the Northern Wasatch so PowMow, Snowbasin, and Wolf Mountain all received enough snow (40″ +) put down what will likely be a permanent base. It also allowed for some of the die hards to get up there for the first turns of the season. However the Central and Southern Wasatch only saw 8-14″, and after a couple weeks of warm, dry weather, they will have to start from scratch.

Just had a look at the latest12z model suite (computer models)and they've been consistent on a storm for next weekend that has potential to be a significant snow producer for the Wasatch and should bring some snow to valley floors as well, including another shot at lake effect snow. There are still questions as to the exact track and strength of the system. EC is a little farther west with the system, bringing the best dynamics to the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. The GFS drops it into the Great Basin with more favorable dynamics for Utah. Either way, we should see some snow in the ‘Satch with high snow:water ratios, so it could pile up rather quickly, the cold airmass will allow for resorts to make snow around the clock starting on Friday. Timing currently looks like frontal passage late Thursday night, so Thursday will likely be mild and windy. Friday we’ll see the bulk of the precipitation but it may continue right into Saturday.


The rest of November becomes little more than guesswork, as any meteorologist worth their salt will tell you that long-range forecasting is little more than speculation. But it’s worth looking at. My best estimate based on a combination of upstream factors and the MJO is that we will have a dry first week of November (certain), stormy second week (likely), dryer third week (maybe?), and a return to unsettled weather for the last week of the month (who knows!). Again, this is just an educated guess so don’t go planning your Thanksgiving travel plans based on what I just said. Everything beyond about the 10th of November is totally up in the air, so to speak. What is encouraging is that last November we were sitting on the east side of blocking ridge that didn’t budge until January, and the only snow we saw early in the season was from weak systems diving down the east side of the ridge and clipping the area…. This year, however, there is still an Eastern Pacific high but it isn’t nearly as stubborn and is allowing for more progressive systems to enter the area. So hopefully we won’t fall into the same pattern that plagued us for so much of last season.
So there you have it! A first look at the month of November.

Keep your fingers crossed and we’ll update daily as we approach next week’s pattern change.