Saturday's Waffle Forecast

 

Saturday October 27th looks to be a beautiful day for an authentic Liege Waffle!

Morning will be a bit on the chilly side so enjoy a nice cup of Joe or delicious hot cocoa.

Opening temperature will be in the low 30's with a mid-day temperature in the upper 40's.

On a side note, check out the Pumpkin Praline and Canadian Apple Pie flavors of the week. You will not be disappointed.

You can find them @ the Olympic Hills Shopping Center (3900 S Wasatch Blvd) from 8am to noon. 

Come stop in!

Location, Location, Location

Looks like a band of snow will develop tonight but it is tough to say where, if i was a betting man i would place it between Point of the Mountain and Layton area! 

I have been looking a few computer models and they are generating anywhere from 1-6 inch's of snow at the Salt Lake International airport, with most staying in the 2-3 inch range.

 Timing will be an issue also, looks like early morning (3-4am) is when it is expected to changeover, so Wednesdays morning commute might be impacted!

Here is the Graphic the National Weather Service has put out explaining the Snow band for tonight, and below that is what UDOT thinks the main impacts will be as far as travel is concerned!

Stay tuned if anything shall change i will update you, and Enjoy this years 1st Snowfall!

 

 CLICK HERE TO SEE THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ON SNOW AMOUNTS

 

Possible Snow Tonight ?

TUESDAYS MORNING COMMUTE

       ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE  
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL DIG FURTHER  
  AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A SWATH OF  
  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WHICH  
  WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH  
  THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITES AND  
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES. THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS BAND  
  DEVELOP? CURRENT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL DEVELOP  
  BETWEEN WENDOVER...THE WASATCH FRONT AND EVANSTON. THIS COULD AND  
  LIKELY WILL SHIFT SOME. BUT WHEREVER THE BAND DEVELOPS...SIGNIFICANT  
  IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DEFINITELY CHECK LATER FORECASTS AS THE  
  WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.  
   
  ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SURGE IN COLDER AIR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
  COULD SUPPORT A LEGITIMATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM THE  
  GREAT SALT LAKE INTO THE TOOELE VALLEY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE VALLEY. 
   
  ANOTHER RELATIVE BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
  AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PASSES THE REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED  
  PROCESSES DECAY. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON  
  INSTABILITY SO MENTIONED THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   
  THE THIRD ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WARM  
  ADVECTION IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF  
  PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN  
  AND CENTRAL UTAH. TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE SUPPORT THE  
  THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AGAIN THURSDAY  
  MORNING. ENJOY

Wet Week Ahead

Everything is set and ready to go.  Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.

           Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
       Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area.  All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area.  Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening.  Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.

       Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch.  We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model).  Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.

Accumulations:
      Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday.  Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″.  Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.

 

Old Man Winter is knocking on the door . . .

            Everything is starting to look a little clearer through at least Wednesday of the upcoming week.  The Wasatch and adjacent Wasatch Front will see its first real winter pattern this week with one large Low sending in reinforcing impulses every 24 hours starting today.Click here for latest western satellite.     Today’s impulse will do little more than bring in some clouds, winds, and slightly cooler temps.  Tomorrow’s will be a little stronger with a slight chance for showers.  The first real threat for accumulating snowfall will start on Monday in the mountains with rain showers in the valleys below 6,000 ft.  At this time it looks like rain and snow will increase in intensity on Monday into Monday night before clearing out Tuesday morning a bit before a reinforcing wave of energy picks things up a bit on Tuesday evening through Wednesday.  This latter impulse could be strong and cold enough to bring snow levels down to SLC valley floors, or at the very least, to the bench locations.

 Also of note is that the GSL temp is very warm which might bring us a lake effect storm! Here is the latest info for the lake:

WRF-NMM LAKE TEMPERATURE CALCULATION
LAST UPDATE: 05:45 UTC 10/20/2012
WEEKLY AVERAGED AVHRR-DERIVED TEMPERATURES       
7-DAY MEAN ENDING 10/15/2012
NORTH ARM
16.28 C
SOUTH ARM
15.77 C

CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE                 
13.5 C
LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN WRF
14.7 C

TLAKE EDITED IN WRF-NMM AT: 05:45:06 UTC 10/20/2012

As you can see the Avg water temp this time of year is 13.5 c (56.3 F) but with the HOT summer we had it is sitting at a mean of 16.0 (60.8). if we drop to -1c (30.1 F) we will be cold enough for lake enhanced or lake effect squalls, but there is a few more ingredients needed to make this happen as described below.

 

 Lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow is more complicated than just cold air within northwest flow moving over the warmer Great Salt Lake. The necessary ingredients include sufficient over-lake temperature differential (i.e. greater than 17C from the surface to 10,000 ft MSL or 700 mb), sufficient distance of air flowing across the lake (northwest or north flow provides this across the longer portion of the Great Salt Lake ), minimal change of wind speed or direction in the boundary layer, deeply unstable boundary layer (top layer above 600 mb level preferred for sufficient convective growth), adequate steering flow to develop banding, and over-water surface convergence which is often driven by a land breeze circulation under radiational cooling at night (air flowing toward the warmer water from the colder surrounding land). The lake bands can be further enhanced when they are sufficiently deep and extend well inland resulting in upslope flow of the moist air along the west slope of the Wasatch Range. For a given event the ingredients for lake-effect and lake-enhanced precipitation varies with respect to the potential for generating snow. This will determine if a lake band or lake enhanced area of precipitation will develop and how long and intense the snowfall will be.

Click here for latest future radar loop

 La Crosse Technology Solar Professional Weather Center (Google Affiliate Ad)

Possible Major pattern change

After not checking the models for the last 48 hours, I was excited to see that the latest 18z run of the GFS and the latest run of the Euro both show a potential major pattern shift for next week.   We generally take these long range models with a grain of salt as anything beyond 10 days is very unreliable, but it was worth noting.  Well it seems that this time the charts were on to something.  Models show a much colder, more organized system diving into the Great Basin late next weekend/early next week.  It is still very early, but this is the type of winter storm that could bring snow all the way down to the lower valleys with decent, lasting snowfall for the mountains.  The latest versions of the CFSv2 continue to indicate this pattern change in today’s run.  Here is the current forecast for the week of Oct 21-27:

As you can see, it depicts a deep moisture tap taking aim at the entire West Coast of the U.S., the type of pattern that is conducive for good Utah snowfall.  It is still very early to get into any details but it does seem as if there may be a series of systems to affect the area after the initial system.  Something to keep an eye on for sure, as it could be the type of pattern that goes a long way to getting the Utah ski season underway.

However this ends up playing out, we’ll keep you informed.  Hopefully the models continue with this trend instead of backtracking as they did so often last year. Right now, we are leaning towards the colder, wetter solution. 18z GFS seems to reflect this as it trended slightly farther south than previous runs. Of note, if the colder solution verifies, we could be looking at snow down to SLC valley floors–lake effect snow is also a distinct possibility as GSL surface temps are still relatively warm. Still very early but this is an exciting trend that could go a long way to getting us all on the mountain. Cross your fingers that the models don’t backtrack.

Rain looking likely Thursday-Friday

       A LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 
  TOMORROW BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD BEGINNING 
  THURSDAY...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE 
  WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH TOMORROW...ALLOWING 
  FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH 
  INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER 
  COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. INCREASED 
  CLOUDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DECREASING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE 
  SOUTH BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MAXES IN THE NORTH WILL BE AS HIGH 
  AS 10F ABOVE CLIMO AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. 
   
       THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH 
  FRIDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND 
  SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD 
  COVER AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK AROUND CLIMO 
  OVER THE NORTH...AND UP TO 10F BELOW THOSE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN 
  UTAH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE 
  AT HIGH PEAKS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE 
  SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
  SHOWING BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS 
  HIGHER THAN USUAL.  
   
  MODELS INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA ON 
  SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. 
  COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
  PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE 
  RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT AND GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY MONDAY 
  BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BEGINNING AT DAY 7.  
   

 

  CLICK HERE FOR FUTURE RADAR LOOP

 

 

CLCIK HERE FOR LATEST NWS FORECAST

Possible pattern change

 

Cool temperatures continue this weekend with quiet, sunny weather.  As the California low mentioned in our previous discussion slowly drifts into the desert Southwest over the beginning of the upcoming week, we’ll see an increase in moisture from the south starting on Wednesday in Northern Utah.  With the bulk of the moisture from this system arriving on Thursday and Friday.  While not a particularly cool system, it is likely that we’ll see snow high in the mountains.  At this time, we are not expecting anything significant, and any snow that does fall will be of the wet variety–good base building snow.

Beyond that, signs are pointing to an unsettled and cool pattern continuing.  GFS (computer model) in particular has been very consistent for the last 5 or 6 runs with a trough entering the area from the northwest during the weekend with another stronger trough on its heels for early in the week of October 15.  This is the type of pattern that, if it verifies, could go a long way to building a base for the Wasatch. Good news!  So anyway, while this pattern is still very much developing in the models, it is looking increasingly likely that at the very least, Autumn is here to stay.  

Keep praying for snow!

October Outlook

 

Short term:
The first part of the advertised cool down began yesterday with high temperature about 5-10 degrees lower than they were on Tuesday.  Today is another near average day before temps will dip below average tomorrow through the weekend along the Wasatch Front with the arrival of a reinforcing shot of cold air that will push slightly farther west than yesterday’s.  We, however, will see nothing in the way of precipitation, as all of that action is well to our east.  A few more clouds tomorrow and light breezes is all that will accompany the cooler temperatures.  Night time temps tomorrow night through the weekend will dip below freezing in mountain valleys and some of the colder low valleys as well. Time to cover up or harvest the plants.
Next week, the closed cut-off low pressure system that has been sitting off the California coast will gradually move inland.  Over Southern California, Southern Utah, and Arizona.  Not too much dynamics or moisture associated with this system but it will bring us a slight chance of showers–with the best chance for precip mostly to our south.  The timing on this looks to be about Wednesday of next week.  Southerly flow that develops ahead of the low may warm us up back to near average by Tuesday



Long term:
Everything beyond the next 7 days is very vague at this point but there is nothing to suggest that the blocking high pressure ridge parked off the coast of British Columbia will be going anywhere anytime soon.  So our best chances for snow will remain with cut-off low pressure systems or weak, cool systems that periodically drop down the east side of the ridge.  El Nino, which for a couple weeks, was looking a little stronger in the models, now looks weaker again.  The CPC has now given only 55% chance of development.  I was never as sold on it’s development as they were so I’m not too surprised.  I also believe that an ENSO neutral year or a very weak El Nino is better for Northern Utah’s chances at seeing average or above precipitation.  La Nina has a tendency to favor the Northwest, El Nino – the southwest, but an ENSO neutral year often aims the jet stream more at the mid-latitudes (including the Wasatch).  Teleconnections begin to play a significant role in our weather this time of year, but as of now, most of those are in neutral states and forecasted to stay that way for at least the next ten days or so.  We’ll keep an eye on those as well as the MJO over the next few weeks to see if they show signs of livening up, whether good or bad.
For the month of October, it’s looking mostly dry until at least mid-month.  After that, the CFSv2 suggest near average precipitation through the end of the month. So overall, I think we’ll be below normal precip-wise and near normal temperature-wise for the month barring some drastic change in the pattern.  Not too much excitement as of yet, but remember, things can change in a hurry once the Pacific steps on the gas.


 As far as seasonal outlook, not much reason to change my original snow forecast for the season of about normal.  If a weak El Nino does indeed develop, the southern parts of Utah may be more likely to jump above average with the North slightly below.  But I’m guessing that El Nino will be mostly a non-factor for us this winter so most areas of Utah will have equal chances of seeing above/below average snowfall.  Sounds a bit like a cop-out to say just an average year, but the best we can do is call it as we see it, and right now there isn’t anything out there to suggest otherwise.  Besides, I think after last winter, we’d all be quite happy with an average snow year, right?

El Nino vs. La Nina influnces on the Untied States

 

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, weak El Niño conditions may develop this fall. How might a full-fledged El Niño event this winter influence weather where you live?
Years of monitoring and studying El Niño and La Niña events have helped scientists better understand how these seesawing warm and cool cycles in the tropical Pacific typically influence climate and weather patterns throughout the United States. This information can be particularly useful to farmers and water managers.
El Niño and La Niña are particularly influential in the winter. These maps show the difference from average December-February temperature and precipitation averaged over 22 El Niño and 19 La Niña episodes that have occurred in the past 60 years.
In the top row, shades of red indicate areas that were up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average while shades of blue indicate areas that were up to 3 degrees cooler than average. In the bottom row, shades of brown indicate areas that received up to 2.5 inches less than average precipitation while green indicates up to 2.5 inches more than average.
During El Niño events, the easterly trade winds that blow across the tropical Pacific Ocean are weaker than usual and sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. An outcome of warmer waters is increased thunderstorms in the eastern tropical Pacific, contributing at times to well above normal precipitation on the West Coast. El Niño events also increase the odds of unusually wet and cold winters across the southern tier of the United States, while the Pacific Northwest tends to experience milder winter temperatures than usual.
During La Niña events, the pattern is typically reversed. Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are cooler than normal. The polar jet stream tends to shift northward over the central Pacific Ocean, increasing the likelihood of wetter- (or snowier-) than-normal winters in the Pacific Northwest and colder temperatures in much of the western half of the country. The meandering jet stream also typically leads to dry conditions and above-average temperatures in the southern tier of the country.
Maps by NOAA climate.gov team, based on data provided by Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Caption by Caitlyn Kennedy. Reviewed by Mike Halpert, NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Utah Climatic Summary September 2012

CLICK HERE FOR A DETAILED LOOK AT SEPTEMBERS CLIMATIC SUMMARY 

The Latest 2012 Global Climate Update

The average global temperature for August 2012 was more than 1° Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average, according to the latest monthly analysis from the National Climatic Data Center, making it the fourth-warmest August since record keeping began in 1880. August 2012 also marked the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th-century average.
The map above shows August temperatures relative to average across the globe. Red indicates temperatures up to 7° Fahrenheit (4° Celsius) warmer than the 1981–2010 average, and blue indicates temperatures up to 7° Fahrenheit cooler than the average. Most areas of the world experienced higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including far northeastern North America, central and Southern Europe, and east central Asia. Meanwhile, parts of Siberia were notably cooler than average.
The August 2012 global land area temperature tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, at more than 1.6° Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average. For the oceans, the August global sea surface temperature was close to 1°Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average, tying with 2006 as the fifth warmest for August on record. It was also the greatest above-average ocean temperature for any month since July 2010.
Additionally, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that, Arctic sea ice shrank to 1.58 million square miles on August 26, dipping below the smallest extent on record, which occurred on September 18, 2007, at 1.61 million square miles. By the end of the month, sea ice extent dropped to 1.42 million square miles, with the melt season expected to last until mid-September. The six lowest sea ice extents have all occurred in the past six years.
Map by Tim Loomis, NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab, based on temperature anomaly data from the National Climatic Data Center. Caption adapted by Susan Osborne from the August 2012 Global Climate Summary from the National Climatic Data Center. Reviewed by Jake Crouch.