After not checking the models for the last 48 hours, I was excited to see that the latest 18z run of the GFS and the latest run of the Euro both show a potential major pattern shift for next week. We generally take these long range models with a grain of salt as anything beyond 10 days is very unreliable, but it was worth noting. Well it seems that this time the charts were on to something. Models show a much colder, more organized system diving into the Great Basin late next weekend/early next week. It is still very early, but this is the type of winter storm that could bring snow all the way down to the lower valleys with decent, lasting snowfall for the mountains. The latest versions of the CFSv2 continue to indicate this pattern change in today’s run. Here is the current forecast for the week of Oct 21-27:
As you can see, it depicts a deep moisture tap taking aim at the entire West Coast of the U.S., the type of pattern that is conducive for good Utah snowfall. It is still very early to get into any details but it does seem as if there may be a series of systems to affect the area after the initial system. Something to keep an eye on for sure, as it could be the type of pattern that goes a long way to getting the Utah ski season underway.
However this ends up playing out, we’ll keep you informed. Hopefully the models continue with this trend instead of backtracking as they did so often last year. Right now, we are leaning towards the colder, wetter solution. 18z GFS seems to reflect this as it trended slightly farther south than previous runs. Of note, if the colder solution verifies, we could be looking at snow down to SLC valley floors–lake effect snow is also a distinct possibility as GSL surface temps are still relatively warm. Still very early but this is an exciting trend that could go a long way to getting us all on the mountain. Cross your fingers that the models don’t backtrack.
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