Triple Digit Temperatures for Salt Lake City?

Very hot conditions will be expanding this week, the image below is today's temps from the ECMWF model

followed by next Sunday the 30th in the next image.

 

Sunday June 23rd temps

Sunday June 30th Temps

Saturday June 29th

 The latest GFS forecast suggest that we will flirt with 20c on Friday!

 The record high for that day is 102ºF and if this forecast holds up we may make a run at that, possibly exceeding it if the southerly flow can get going.  This is still a 5 1/2 day forecast, so no point in getting to excited (or depressed) yet, but it appears we may be in for a scorcher.




 Further out the models are calling for very hot condtions for the Southwest with readings exceeding 110 degrees for most people  for July 4th

July 3rd temps, purple is 110+

Damaging East Downslope Winds Likely

 Models have been advertising this wind event for some while now, there is still some uncertainty as when this event will start with one model starting it Monday afternoon and the other early Tuesday morning.
 The graphic below show the possible wind gust's @ 2am Tuesday, as you can see it is showing gusts between 65-75 KT (75-85mph) at this time.
 
 














 

Click Here for latest Wind Model

 I will do an update later this evening as more models come in, this particular model runs twice a day at noon and midnight, I would suspect a High Wind Watch will be issued this afternoon, and then upgraded to a Warning on Monday!  

For past event's click on the link below.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/990423/case.html

 

Lake Effect Very Likely Tonight

 Conditions are excellent for a lake effect event tonight and early tomorrow: cold air, relatively warm lake water temps, decent moisture and instability.  It’s the weather nerd in me that is fascinated to see how this develops tonight.  The lake effect band may start close enough to the Cottonwoods to drop more snow up the canyons, however, I’m thinking it may migrate away from the Cottonwoods and closer to the Oquirrhs by later tonight.  It will be interesting to see how this lake effect band develops. If we can get it just right, we could see decent accumulations.

Rain then Snow for the Wasatch Front

Rain and snow will develop over the north Wednesday and gradually spread south though out the day. It should be a Rainy night in Salt Lake City.

 It will turn much colder Thursday morning with the snow level lowering to the valley floors with
accumulations possible.

February 2013 Climatic Summary For Utah

  It was a cold and Snowy February in spots around Utah, click on the link for detailed info from the National Weather Service.

Click Here For Detailed Summary

Latest Snow Pack Numbers In Utah

Lets all hope for a stellar March as we are about 80% of normal in northern Utah.

Click here for the latest Snow Pack numbers in Utah

The Inversion is Gone, but Heavy Snows in Tap

      As you can see from the picture below most of the smog and junk from the last 2 weeks is out of here, as if we have not  payed the price with this inversion already we are going to add insult to injury and bring in a potent snowstorm today.

   

 As you can see the NWS has winter weather advisories and warnings in place.

Here is UDOT'S take on the approaching storm

So lets get down to business with snow amounts, today-tonight's storm keeps trending snowier in all models, and slows the front down across N. Utah that is why the nws has upgraded the nothern wasatch mountians and valleys to a warning, click here to visit the nws page current thinking for the valleys is that Farmignton north will get the goods prob. anywhere from 5-8"+, but if the front stalls a little bit further south then places like Bountiful and Possibly SLC will receive more, for the rest of the Wasatch Front my guess would say 3-6 inches, but as i said the last 2 models have generated quite a bit more, so don't be surprised to see 8+. 

A bit of a break Monday afteernoon and night then the 2nd storm moves in, this will be a diffrent type of storm which will be a warm advection, which is when there is no front associated with it, just lifting of the low levels of the atmosphere, these events are hard to predict amounts but current thinking is 3-6"+ in the valleys, with a another light snow event on Wednesday. Enjoy

As for the Wasatch Mountains, looks like a good 8-14" with this 1st storm, them a 5-10" with the 2nd storm on Tuesday which adds up to 1-2' feet of snow, great skiing days on Monday-Thursday!

Winter Driving Conditions Expected Thursday Eve.-Friday

There is a good chance of Very Dangerous Road Conditions for the Thursday evening commute as well as Friday morning's, below is a graphic from UDOT concerning this potential!

 

Statewide Road Snow Event
Thursday and Friday

 

Snow amounts: Right now computer models are all over the place with regards to amounts, i will go with  4-8"+ in the valleys with the possabilty of much more if the DLE (dreaded lake effect ) sets up over a certain area, Benchs 6-12"+ and Mountains 1-2'+. Enjoy

Inversion's for a few more days then SNOW!

 

 How cold has it been at the Salt Lake City Airport over the past week? Temperatures have averaged 6 to 16 degrees below normal since December 29th. The biggest departure from normal was January 5th, with the temperature averaging 16 degrees below normal.

Pic taken at noon on Sunday the 6th

Just a quick note on this inversion As PM2.5 levels continue to climb this week, it would be interesting to see how this event compares to others during the past decade.  Based on the PM concentrations above, it seems this is an event for Utah and Salt Lake Counties that is getting up there amongst the worst events over the past decade.

 CLICK HERE FOR ANIMATED MAP OF LOCAL AIR POLLUTION

Alright now for the good stuff, 

Attention  turns to the next system which is timing its frontal passage for late Thursday/early Friday. We may start to see warm advection precip falling primarily in the high elevations ahead of the system as early as Tuesday. Accumulations should be light on Tuesday and Wednesday until the main system approaches on Thursday. As of right now this system is looking very solid on both the GFS and Euro. It doesn’t have the most moisture in the world, but it has a strong front, lots of cold air and instability behind the front, and relatively slow movement. Not comfortable at this point guessing exact amounts but at least a moderate storm is likely.

 

Thursday at noon it should be snowing at a good clip

GFS and Euro both show a secondary system dropping into the area sometime around Sunday. This system will likely not be quite as strong but will bring in another shot of cold air and snow.

Sunday night's forecast

The other effect this system on Thursday/Friday will have on Utah weather will be to scour out the inversions. Don’t think we’ll get enough air flow to do much damage to the cold pools on Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Thursday we should see the cold air and pollution start to blow out. Again, this system is of a cold nature, so don’t expect the valleys to warm up too much, but at least we’ll be able to see across the valleys again by Friday.

Hopefully this all pans out and relives us from this unhealthy air, we will update as we get closer!  In the meantime head up and hit the slopes which still have great conditions, and believe it or not it is warmer at the resorts than the Wasatch front. Enjoy


Long range:
CFSv2 and long-range GFS and Euro point to possibility of us returning to ridging during the third week of January (15-21). Uber-long range models are hinting at this ridging breaking down during the last week of the month with the storm door possibly opening. Now this is all very speculative but it’s always worth noting. December long-range forecasts turned out to be pretty accurate so . . . who knows!

Fresh Pow for Christmas in Utah

      Systems continue to push into the west coast as the large parent low spins off the Pac NW coastline. Everything still on track with previous forecast. Main change is that short-range models are now within range and bringing in the details, so we have greater confidence in snowfall amounts. We will have breezy conditions today with a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching systems. This flow should scour out the cold pools (inversions) in the valleys and allow them to warm up. Clouds should also be on the increase this afternoon
.
      Tonight we have the first weak wave bring mostly mountain snow showers after about midnight. This will primarily affect the mountains north of I-80 and could bring 1-3″ of fresh snow for tomorrow. We will then see a break in the action Sunday afternoon / evening as the next, more potent, system enters the area.
This stronger system will bring snow to the area late Sunday night and the snow should continue all day on Monday before tapering off on Monday night. The system is currently progged to track perfectly to bring the entire Wasatch a good period of both frontal and post-frontal snowfall. This is by no means a major snowfall for the Wasatch, but everything looks good for a decent period of snow. The lower valleys might start as rain or rain/snow mix early Monday morning before changing to all snow as the front approaches late Monday morning. Valleys can expect 1-4″ of snow. The Wasatch should see .75-1.25″ of QPF and average snow ratios of 15:1 — this translates to about 10-18″ of snow for the high elevations. Not too shabby! The other concern will be travel conditions around the state, with Christmas eve being a busy travel day this could hamper travel to grandmas house. As of now this is what  UDOT is saying: ****Please check back Saturday afternoon for road weather impacts as a stronger storm moves through Utah Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).  Valley routes and the I-15 corridor are expected to see periods of light road snow while mountain routes will see moderate accumulations of road snow Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).***Click Here to go to UDOT's Road Weather Alerts

Here is the latest model-generated snowfall forecast for the Western CONUS through Christmas day:



      We should clear out on Christmas Day for blue bird conditions. Wednesday we’ll see the next system approach with snow likely Wednesday night-Thursday night, perhaps lasting to Friday. At this time this looks like a moderate storm. Great news for all the holiday skiers who are traveling to Utah for some freshies. But it could cause some travel headaches.

     The Cottonwoods and PC continue to do alright this year and are just above average snowpack, but the Northern Wasatch is struggling at less than 50% of normal in places so lets hope we can get some good snows going in their direction as well.

Plenty of Snow in Utah, More to come !

   WOW what a storm a Powder day on tap for sure!  Looks like the Cottonwoods have close to a foot and Park City area  received 5-10″. Wasatch front Valleys have seen anywhere between 1"-6" and benches between 4"-12". And it is still snowing . . Additional accumulations of 1-3″ in the Cottonwoods and PC is likely. Here’s a look at the Snowbird Snowcam (which measures up to 16″):

Pic. courtesy  Sheryn Shaw on Saturday morning

  
Our next storm will arrive on Sunday and as i stated in my last post, we will have to watch this one and of course it looks a little stronger than before,  it still looks like it will move in for Sunday through Monday. This is an advection precipitation event and favors the Northern Wasatch. NWS has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch already to highlight this. This system looks much better now than it did the other day, so we’re feeling optimistic. Another 10-20″ can be expected for Sunday-Monday in the mountains with up to 2 feet in favored locations north of I-80. Wasatch front Valleys should receive another 1"-3" + ,benches should receive 2"-5" +. Lots of Snow! Monday should be an awesome powder day!

      The next system moves in late Tuesday and drags a front through the area early Wednesday morning. This system is fairly potent as well as very cold. There will be potential for lake effect snow behind the front on Wednesday.  We’re looking at potential for additional significant accumulations of 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with wasatch front  valleys 6"+ and benches 12", hopefully the models do not flip flop on us and it produces a BIG snow event, Keep your Fingers Crossed! 

     After Wednesday it looks like we’ll have at least a 4 day break with the possibility of urban Fog, next chance for snow will be Christmas eve or Christmas day. But let’s focus on the a very snowy short term for now!

Powder Days Ahead

Who is ready for some more POW

     Tonight-Saturday the Wasatch mountains should receive 6-12" of snow and the valleys might squeeze out 2" while the benches might receive 4".

      Sunday -Sunday night was once a pretty good looking storm according to models a few days back, now most likely a warm advection type storm, which means no front crossing the area, so looks like the Wasatch will receive another 4"-8" of snow and the valleys maybe another 2"-3" and benches 3"-5" Poss. more will have to watch this one.

Tuesday-Wednesday still looks like a very potent storm for the area, a strong cold front blasts thru around the evening commute tuesday, might have to watch this one as temps will fall in the 20's behind the front so accumulating  road snow and ice will be a good bet, right now i am thinking 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with valleys 6"+ and benches 12"+.  Plus there is a chance of DLE (dreaded lake effect ) Wednesday morning.

If you have not tuned up the Snow blower now is the time!




 


Stay tuned will update tomorrow!