Powder Days Ahead

Who is ready for some more POW

     Tonight-Saturday the Wasatch mountains should receive 6-12" of snow and the valleys might squeeze out 2" while the benches might receive 4".

      Sunday -Sunday night was once a pretty good looking storm according to models a few days back, now most likely a warm advection type storm, which means no front crossing the area, so looks like the Wasatch will receive another 4"-8" of snow and the valleys maybe another 2"-3" and benches 3"-5" Poss. more will have to watch this one.

Tuesday-Wednesday still looks like a very potent storm for the area, a strong cold front blasts thru around the evening commute tuesday, might have to watch this one as temps will fall in the 20's behind the front so accumulating  road snow and ice will be a good bet, right now i am thinking 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with valleys 6"+ and benches 12"+.  Plus there is a chance of DLE (dreaded lake effect ) Wednesday morning.

If you have not tuned up the Snow blower now is the time!




 


Stay tuned will update tomorrow! 

White Christmas ?

   

   Tomorrow will be clear but winds will be on the increase ahead of the next system.  This system is a cutoff low that will drop down the west coast on Wed before ejecting inland over So. Cal, N. Arizona and S. Utah on Thursday and Friday.  This will bring high elevation snow to S. Utah where they desperately need it.  The Wasatch will just see a chance for mountain snow showers on Thurs and Friday.  A secondary wave will drop in from the northwest Friday night and give Northern Utah a chance for more widespread snowfall.  Still, amounts should be light with just a few inches in the mountains.

      Saturday should be the break in the action before a larger, colder trough enters the area on Sunday.  This storm right now is timing for a late Sunday through Monday.  Still questions about its overall strength but it has potential to be decent.  We’ll continue to watch it.  Models agree on a break for Tuesday of next week with another system dropping in on Wednesday with another system possible for the weekend leading up to Christmas.  Definitely has the potential to be a great little pattern for us in Utah and throughout the Western U.S.
                 
         Below are forecast models for Sunday the 16th and Wednesday the 19th, and i also put Christmas Day in there also, this is way far out there but models for the last 3 days are showing a storm for Christmas, let keep are fingers crossed and hope it brings us a white one!

Sunday the 16th @ 12pm

Sunday the 16th @ 6pm

Wednesday the 19 @ 12pm

Christmas Day @ 12pm

Utah to continue to receive some POW!

 A low pressure system will cutoff from the general flow and drop down the west coast over the next couple days before ejecting inland.  It will have a lot of energy and moisture to work with, but looks like it will track over northern Arizona.  A bummer for us in the Wasatch as we’ll likely see very little snow from this, but good news for the mountains of Southern Utah and Northern AZ that really need some snow.

Attention then turns to potentially stronger systems that may bring some great skiing and riding to the area leading up to Christmas (or the end of the world, depending on your perspective).  The eastern pacific ridge retrogrades westward, allowing for the storm door to open up for the west coast and areas inland (Utah).  The first of these systems is being handled differently by each model. The GFS is weaker with the system and keeps it mostly in the northwest with just a few showers for northern Utah this weekend, it does eventually drop the system into the Great Basin, but not until early next week.  The Euro and GEM are similar with the strength position of the system, but differ on general timing of the heaviest precip.  The GEM wants to bring heavy snow to the area starting  late Saturday, while the EC holds off until Sunday.  Both solutions are stronger and farther south with the system than the GFS.  General consensus in the meteorology world is that the EC and GEM are the better models with this particular feature based on better ensemble support and a better recent track record.  But the stubbornness of the GFS to come around over the past few days keeps confidence low.  We believe that we have a decent shot at a  significant storm on approximately Sunday the 16th if these trends hold.  Snow levels will likely be at valley floors for this system as well.  I told you all to just hang on till mid-month… fortunately mother nature provided some frequent small storms to make the wait a bit easier.

The synopsis is we will have a break Tuesday and Wednesday, a chance for light snow Thurs/Fri as the cutoff low tracks to our south, and then a chance for a better storm this weekend.
Long-range outlook still looking good with the progressive pattern continuing and systems dropping in for the next couple weeks.  We are either going to have a nice snowy end of the world on the 21st or a great holiday ski season.   I’m okay with either.

We’ll keep you posted this week on how the weekend storm is looking….

Promising Signs of a Much Needed Pattern Change

      Snow has already started falling lightly in many mountain areas. Should be off and on but picking up throughout the day with the best chance for accumulations occurring later tonight. Just a few inches in the Wasatch with up to 6″ in areas favored by a northwest flow like the Cottonwoods. Just not enough moisture to work with for it to be anything major.

     Another even weaker system on Monday night will freshen things up with another 1-4″ in the Wasatch… Wednesday’s system is looking stronger but is now progged by all major models to drop down the West coast and move inland tracking over southern Utah. So the Wasatch will likely only see another round of light accumulations.
The whole while it will be cold with modest warming between waves. This will allow for good snow-making so resorts that need to supplement their bases can do so.

     The next week will be nice in that we’ll see frequent systems but disappointing as they are all weak. As a forecaster, it’s Week 2 that’s looking especially promising starting around mid-month (next weekend). It’s still far off, but there’s been a lot of model consistency for cold, stronger storms to start moving into the Pacific Northwest and dropping into the Great Basin. Stick with us over the next week, enjoy these little storms, and we’ll keep you posted on the status of the big boys. Keep the good vibes going… I don’t think I could take another backtracking of the models.

   Below are current model runs of projected water amounts!  

Saturday the 15th

Sunday the 16th

 

Tuesday the 18th

Look's like December will Roar in here like a Lion!

        Today will be fair and mild with increasing clouds and breezes later in the day. Tomorrow morning we’ll be brushed by a weak system moving by to our north and east. Only a slight chance for showers in the Wasatch tomorrow morning with the highest chances close to the Idaho border. Snow levels will be relatively high near 7,000 ft and we don’t expect anything more than a dusting anywhere. Temps will drop by 10 degrees or so behind the front on Monday, but will warm up as a ridge rebuilds through Wednesday.

     

       Attention then turns to the next, more significant system dropping down from the Gulf of AK. It will mostly affect coastal areas of California, Oregon and Washington through the end of the work week. We’ll be under a moist southwest flow so it is possible to see a couple showers on Thursday/Friday, but it won’t be until later in the day on Saturday (Dec 1) that the system will really start to move inland. Still a lot of questions as to the overall strength and how well this system will hold together as it moves across the Great Basin, but we think it definitely has potential to be significant. Snow levels will likely be well above the valley floors so it could be another good base-building wet snow for the resorts. Lots of details still have to be worked out but next weekend looks to be our return to active weather. Stay tuned . . . 

Saturday Dec. 1st

Sunday Dec. 2nd

Monday Dec. 3rd

 CLICK HERE FOR LATEST COMPUTER MODEL

The Graphs below are from the Climate Prediction Center, they are showing Utah having a 40-50% chance of precipitation between Nov.30th-Dec.7th

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