It will turn much colder Thursday morning with the snow level lowering to the valley floors with
accumulations possible.
Showing posts with label Rain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rain. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Rain then Snow for the Wasatch Front
It will turn much colder Thursday morning with the snow level lowering to the valley floors with
accumulations possible.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Look's like December will Roar in here like a Lion!
Today will be fair and mild with increasing clouds and breezes later in
the day. Tomorrow morning we’ll be brushed by a weak system moving by
to our north and east. Only a slight chance for showers in the Wasatch
tomorrow morning with the highest chances close to the Idaho border.
Snow levels will be relatively high near 7,000 ft and we don’t expect
anything more than a dusting anywhere. Temps will drop by 10 degrees or
so behind the front on Monday, but will warm up as a ridge rebuilds
through Wednesday.
Attention then turns to the next, more significant system dropping
down from the Gulf of AK. It will mostly affect coastal areas of
California, Oregon and Washington through the end of the work week.
We’ll be under a moist southwest flow so it is possible to see a couple
showers on Thursday/Friday, but it won’t be until later in the day on
Saturday (Dec 1) that the system will really start to move inland.
Still a lot of questions as to the overall strength and how well this
system will hold together as it moves across the Great Basin, but we
think it definitely has potential to be significant. Snow levels will
likely be well above the valley floors so it could be another good
base-building wet snow for the resorts. Lots of details still have to
be worked out but next weekend looks to be our return to active weather.
Stay tuned . . .
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| Saturday Dec. 1st |
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| Sunday Dec. 2nd |
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| Monday Dec. 3rd |
The Graphs below are from the Climate Prediction Center, they are showing Utah having a 40-50% chance of precipitation between Nov.30th-Dec.7th
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| Add caption |
Saturday, November 3, 2012
November Outlook
Just had a look at the latest12z model suite (computer models)and they've been consistent on a storm for next weekend that has potential to be a significant snow producer for the Wasatch and should bring some snow to valley floors as well, including another shot at lake effect snow. There are still questions as to the exact track and strength of the system. EC is a little farther west with the system, bringing the best dynamics to the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. The GFS drops it into the Great Basin with more favorable dynamics for Utah. Either way, we should see some snow in the ‘Satch with high snow:water ratios, so it could pile up rather quickly, the cold airmass will allow for resorts to make snow around the clock starting on Friday. Timing currently looks like frontal passage late Thursday night, so Thursday will likely be mild and windy. Friday we’ll see the bulk of the precipitation but it may continue right into Saturday.
The rest of November becomes little more than guesswork, as any meteorologist worth their salt will tell you that long-range forecasting is little more than speculation. But it’s worth looking at. My best estimate based on a combination of upstream factors and the MJO is that we will have a dry first week of November (certain), stormy second week (likely), dryer third week (maybe?), and a return to unsettled weather for the last week of the month (who knows!). Again, this is just an educated guess so don’t go planning your Thanksgiving travel plans based on what I just said. Everything beyond about the 10th of November is totally up in the air, so to speak. What is encouraging is that last November we were sitting on the east side of blocking ridge that didn’t budge until January, and the only snow we saw early in the season was from weak systems diving down the east side of the ridge and clipping the area…. This year, however, there is still an Eastern Pacific high but it isn’t nearly as stubborn and is allowing for more progressive systems to enter the area. So hopefully we won’t fall into the same pattern that plagued us for so much of last season.
So there you have it! A first look at the month of November.
Keep your fingers crossed and we’ll update daily as we approach next week’s pattern change.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Wet Week Ahead
Everything is set and ready to go. Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.
Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area. All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area. Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening. Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.
Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch. We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model). Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.
Accumulations:
Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday. Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″. Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Old Man Winter is knocking on the door . . .
Everything is starting to look a little clearer through at least
Wednesday of the upcoming week. The Wasatch and adjacent Wasatch Front
will see its first real winter pattern this week with one large Low
sending in reinforcing impulses every 24 hours starting today.Click here for latest western satellite. Today’s
impulse will do little more than bring in some clouds, winds, and
slightly cooler temps. Tomorrow’s will be a little stronger with a
slight chance for showers. The first real threat for accumulating
snowfall will start on Monday in the mountains with rain showers in the
valleys below 6,000 ft. At this time it looks like rain and snow will
increase in intensity on Monday into Monday night before clearing out
Tuesday morning a bit before a reinforcing wave of energy picks things
up a bit on Tuesday evening through Wednesday. This latter impulse
could be strong and cold enough to bring snow levels down to SLC valley
floors, or at the very least, to the bench locations.
Also of note is that the GSL temp is very warm which might bring us a lake effect storm! Here is the latest info for the lake:
WRF-NMM LAKE TEMPERATURE CALCULATION LAST UPDATE: 05:45 UTC 10/20/2012 WEEKLY AVERAGED AVHRR-DERIVED TEMPERATURES 7-DAY MEAN ENDING 10/15/2012 NORTH ARM 16.28 C SOUTH ARM 15.77 C CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE 13.5 C LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN WRF 14.7 C TLAKE EDITED IN WRF-NMM AT: 05:45:06 UTC 10/20/2012
As you can see the Avg water temp this time of year is 13.5 c (56.3 F) but with the HOT summer we had it is sitting at a mean of 16.0 (60.8). if we drop to -1c (30.1 F) we will be cold enough for lake enhanced or lake effect squalls, but there is a few more ingredients needed to make this happen as described below.
Lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow is more complicated than just cold air
within northwest flow moving over the warmer Great Salt Lake. The necessary ingredients
include sufficient over-lake temperature differential (i.e. greater than 17C
from the surface to 10,000 ft MSL or 700 mb), sufficient distance of air flowing across the
lake (northwest or north flow provides this across the longer portion of the Great Salt Lake ), minimal change of wind speed or direction in the boundary layer,
deeply unstable boundary layer (top layer above 600 mb
level preferred for sufficient convective growth), adequate steering flow to
develop banding, and over-water surface convergence which is often driven by a
land breeze circulation under radiational cooling at
night (air flowing toward the warmer water from the colder surrounding land).
The lake bands can be further enhanced when they are sufficiently deep and
extend well inland resulting in upslope flow of the moist air along the west
slope of the Wasatch Range. For a given event the
ingredients for lake-effect and lake-enhanced precipitation varies with respect
to the potential for generating snow. This will determine if a lake band or
lake enhanced area of precipitation will develop and how long and intense the
snowfall will be.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Rain looking likely Thursday-Friday
A LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD BEGINNING
THURSDAY...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DECREASING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE
SOUTH BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MAXES IN THE NORTH WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 10F ABOVE CLIMO AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK AROUND CLIMO
OVER THE NORTH...AND UP TO 10F BELOW THOSE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE
AT HIGH PEAKS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAN USUAL.
MODELS INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT AND GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BEGINNING AT DAY 7.
Monday, September 24, 2012
1st Snow of the season in the mountains
Looks like we have has are 1st snow of the season in the Wasatch mountains, it is just a dusting so far, I do expect a little more through the day and overnight!
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Showers likely tonight through Monday
QUICK LOOK AT COMPUTER MODELS /WHATS AVAILABLE/ MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA TODAY/TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT EXPECTED TO TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REACHES FULL STRENGTH TONIGHT...BEST AREA FOR MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES TO PEG THE FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STATE DURING THAT TIME. CLOSED NATURE OF LOW AND INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE COMBINED WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOWEVER. STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST/WEST UTAH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN EVENT...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH COINCIDENT WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY AND COLD CORE TRACK.
BELOW IS A FORECAST MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION, NOTICE ON THE
LOOP BELOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP. STAYS OVER THE WEST DESERT,
SO TIME WILL TELL IF WE GET A GOOD RAIN EVENT OR JUST A FEW SHOWERS
WHICH IS THE WAY I AM LEANING TOWARDS NOW.
There is a weak closed low that is sitting over the coast of
Washington, which results from a weather feature that meteorologists
call a coherent tropopause disturbance, or CTD. A CTD is a
localized cyclonic vortex, which is associated with counterclockwise
rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and is strongest at the tropopause.
The tropopause separates the stratosphere from the troposphere.
The CTD and closed low move into Nevada by tomorrow morning
A different perspective at this time is provided below by a 3-D colored
representation of the tropopause, with cool colors indicating a lower
tropopause and warm colors indicating a higher tropopause. Note how the
tropopause is locally depressed where the CTD and closed low are found
over Nevada.
Thus, as the low approaches Utah, temperatures in the upper-troposphere
will fall. This, combined with large-scale rising motion ahead of the low, will act to destabilize the atmosphere and initiate some showers
and thunderstorms. As a result, although we are still under the
influence of a large-scale upper-level ridge, we have a chance of some
isolated showers and thunderstorms today and scattered showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow.
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Rain with Possabile High Elevation Snow Heading this way
These patterns are always hard to forecast, but i am going out on a limb and calling for showers and storms Monday -Tuesday, with snow above 11,000ft, a thing to note also is a tropical system off southern tip of Baja California on this pic, gfs model takes this right into Yuma,AZ around Sat.29th, most likely a fluke but something to watch that is for sure
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| TUESDAY MORNING FORECAST MODEL |
Here is a look at the tropical system on the 29th computer model!
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| SAT. 29H FORECAST MODEL |
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