February 2013 Climatic Summary For Utah

  It was a cold and Snowy February in spots around Utah, click on the link for detailed info from the National Weather Service.

Click Here For Detailed Summary

Coldest in nearly 20 years in Utah Tonight

CLICK HERE TO GET THE LATEST TEMPERATURE FROM SLC INT L AIRPORT

Plenty of Snow in Utah, More to come !

   WOW what a storm a Powder day on tap for sure!  Looks like the Cottonwoods have close to a foot and Park City area  received 5-10″. Wasatch front Valleys have seen anywhere between 1"-6" and benches between 4"-12". And it is still snowing . . Additional accumulations of 1-3″ in the Cottonwoods and PC is likely. Here’s a look at the Snowbird Snowcam (which measures up to 16″):

Pic. courtesy  Sheryn Shaw on Saturday morning

  
Our next storm will arrive on Sunday and as i stated in my last post, we will have to watch this one and of course it looks a little stronger than before,  it still looks like it will move in for Sunday through Monday. This is an advection precipitation event and favors the Northern Wasatch. NWS has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch already to highlight this. This system looks much better now than it did the other day, so we’re feeling optimistic. Another 10-20″ can be expected for Sunday-Monday in the mountains with up to 2 feet in favored locations north of I-80. Wasatch front Valleys should receive another 1"-3" + ,benches should receive 2"-5" +. Lots of Snow! Monday should be an awesome powder day!

      The next system moves in late Tuesday and drags a front through the area early Wednesday morning. This system is fairly potent as well as very cold. There will be potential for lake effect snow behind the front on Wednesday.  We’re looking at potential for additional significant accumulations of 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with wasatch front  valleys 6"+ and benches 12", hopefully the models do not flip flop on us and it produces a BIG snow event, Keep your Fingers Crossed! 

     After Wednesday it looks like we’ll have at least a 4 day break with the possibility of urban Fog, next chance for snow will be Christmas eve or Christmas day. But let’s focus on the a very snowy short term for now!

Powder Days Ahead

Who is ready for some more POW

     Tonight-Saturday the Wasatch mountains should receive 6-12" of snow and the valleys might squeeze out 2" while the benches might receive 4".

      Sunday -Sunday night was once a pretty good looking storm according to models a few days back, now most likely a warm advection type storm, which means no front crossing the area, so looks like the Wasatch will receive another 4"-8" of snow and the valleys maybe another 2"-3" and benches 3"-5" Poss. more will have to watch this one.

Tuesday-Wednesday still looks like a very potent storm for the area, a strong cold front blasts thru around the evening commute tuesday, might have to watch this one as temps will fall in the 20's behind the front so accumulating  road snow and ice will be a good bet, right now i am thinking 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with valleys 6"+ and benches 12"+.  Plus there is a chance of DLE (dreaded lake effect ) Wednesday morning.

If you have not tuned up the Snow blower now is the time!




 


Stay tuned will update tomorrow! 

Promising Signs of a Much Needed Pattern Change

      Snow has already started falling lightly in many mountain areas. Should be off and on but picking up throughout the day with the best chance for accumulations occurring later tonight. Just a few inches in the Wasatch with up to 6″ in areas favored by a northwest flow like the Cottonwoods. Just not enough moisture to work with for it to be anything major.

     Another even weaker system on Monday night will freshen things up with another 1-4″ in the Wasatch… Wednesday’s system is looking stronger but is now progged by all major models to drop down the West coast and move inland tracking over southern Utah. So the Wasatch will likely only see another round of light accumulations.
The whole while it will be cold with modest warming between waves. This will allow for good snow-making so resorts that need to supplement their bases can do so.

     The next week will be nice in that we’ll see frequent systems but disappointing as they are all weak. As a forecaster, it’s Week 2 that’s looking especially promising starting around mid-month (next weekend). It’s still far off, but there’s been a lot of model consistency for cold, stronger storms to start moving into the Pacific Northwest and dropping into the Great Basin. Stick with us over the next week, enjoy these little storms, and we’ll keep you posted on the status of the big boys. Keep the good vibes going… I don’t think I could take another backtracking of the models.

   Below are current model runs of projected water amounts!  

Saturday the 15th

Sunday the 16th

 

Tuesday the 18th

Snow, and lots of it, looking likely late this week!

Models have been in fairly good agreement for several days but confidence continues to increase as we move closer to the event as the global models are less likely to back track from here on out. After a few more warm, dry days, the weather will change dramatically to a very cold, snowy pattern. Timing still looks like the initial front will move through Thursday night and snow levels will drop Friday to all valley floors. Good orographics and decent moisture behind the front will allow for snow to continue in the mountains and on and off in the valleys for much of Friday night and Saturday. Lake effect snow is also a very good bet with cold, moist air traveling over the relatively warm GSL–this is very hard to forecast so we’ll have to wait until we get closer before we make any exact lake effect forecasts, but be aware that the possibility exists for it.

Later we’ll have a full update where we’ll take a first look at potential snowfall totals. Hint: they have potential to be significant for all elevations.

Looking like we may see a couple more systems trying to dive into the area next week as well. The ski areas should open on time at least!

CPC showing 50% chance of above normal precip for Nov 9th-13th.

Possible Snow Tonight ?

TUESDAYS MORNING COMMUTE

       ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE  
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL DIG FURTHER  
  AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A SWATH OF  
  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WHICH  
  WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH  
  THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITES AND  
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES. THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS BAND  
  DEVELOP? CURRENT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL DEVELOP  
  BETWEEN WENDOVER...THE WASATCH FRONT AND EVANSTON. THIS COULD AND  
  LIKELY WILL SHIFT SOME. BUT WHEREVER THE BAND DEVELOPS...SIGNIFICANT  
  IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DEFINITELY CHECK LATER FORECASTS AS THE  
  WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.  
   
  ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SURGE IN COLDER AIR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
  COULD SUPPORT A LEGITIMATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM THE  
  GREAT SALT LAKE INTO THE TOOELE VALLEY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE VALLEY. 
   
  ANOTHER RELATIVE BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
  AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PASSES THE REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED  
  PROCESSES DECAY. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON  
  INSTABILITY SO MENTIONED THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   
  THE THIRD ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WARM  
  ADVECTION IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF  
  PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN  
  AND CENTRAL UTAH. TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE SUPPORT THE  
  THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AGAIN THURSDAY  
  MORNING. ENJOY

Wet Week Ahead

Everything is set and ready to go.  Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.

           Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
       Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area.  All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area.  Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening.  Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.

       Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch.  We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model).  Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.

Accumulations:
      Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday.  Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″.  Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.

 

Possible Major pattern change

After not checking the models for the last 48 hours, I was excited to see that the latest 18z run of the GFS and the latest run of the Euro both show a potential major pattern shift for next week.   We generally take these long range models with a grain of salt as anything beyond 10 days is very unreliable, but it was worth noting.  Well it seems that this time the charts were on to something.  Models show a much colder, more organized system diving into the Great Basin late next weekend/early next week.  It is still very early, but this is the type of winter storm that could bring snow all the way down to the lower valleys with decent, lasting snowfall for the mountains.  The latest versions of the CFSv2 continue to indicate this pattern change in today’s run.  Here is the current forecast for the week of Oct 21-27:

As you can see, it depicts a deep moisture tap taking aim at the entire West Coast of the U.S., the type of pattern that is conducive for good Utah snowfall.  It is still very early to get into any details but it does seem as if there may be a series of systems to affect the area after the initial system.  Something to keep an eye on for sure, as it could be the type of pattern that goes a long way to getting the Utah ski season underway.

However this ends up playing out, we’ll keep you informed.  Hopefully the models continue with this trend instead of backtracking as they did so often last year. Right now, we are leaning towards the colder, wetter solution. 18z GFS seems to reflect this as it trended slightly farther south than previous runs. Of note, if the colder solution verifies, we could be looking at snow down to SLC valley floors–lake effect snow is also a distinct possibility as GSL surface temps are still relatively warm. Still very early but this is an exciting trend that could go a long way to getting us all on the mountain. Cross your fingers that the models don’t backtrack.

Rain looking likely Thursday-Friday

       A LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 
  TOMORROW BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD BEGINNING 
  THURSDAY...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE 
  WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH TOMORROW...ALLOWING 
  FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH 
  INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER 
  COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. INCREASED 
  CLOUDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DECREASING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE 
  SOUTH BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MAXES IN THE NORTH WILL BE AS HIGH 
  AS 10F ABOVE CLIMO AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. 
   
       THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH 
  FRIDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND 
  SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD 
  COVER AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK AROUND CLIMO 
  OVER THE NORTH...AND UP TO 10F BELOW THOSE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN 
  UTAH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE 
  AT HIGH PEAKS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE 
  SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
  SHOWING BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS 
  HIGHER THAN USUAL.  
   
  MODELS INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA ON 
  SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. 
  COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
  PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE 
  RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT AND GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY MONDAY 
  BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BEGINNING AT DAY 7.  
   

 

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Possible pattern change

 

Cool temperatures continue this weekend with quiet, sunny weather.  As the California low mentioned in our previous discussion slowly drifts into the desert Southwest over the beginning of the upcoming week, we’ll see an increase in moisture from the south starting on Wednesday in Northern Utah.  With the bulk of the moisture from this system arriving on Thursday and Friday.  While not a particularly cool system, it is likely that we’ll see snow high in the mountains.  At this time, we are not expecting anything significant, and any snow that does fall will be of the wet variety–good base building snow.

Beyond that, signs are pointing to an unsettled and cool pattern continuing.  GFS (computer model) in particular has been very consistent for the last 5 or 6 runs with a trough entering the area from the northwest during the weekend with another stronger trough on its heels for early in the week of October 15.  This is the type of pattern that, if it verifies, could go a long way to building a base for the Wasatch. Good news!  So anyway, while this pattern is still very much developing in the models, it is looking increasingly likely that at the very least, Autumn is here to stay.  

Keep praying for snow!

October Outlook

 

Short term:
The first part of the advertised cool down began yesterday with high temperature about 5-10 degrees lower than they were on Tuesday.  Today is another near average day before temps will dip below average tomorrow through the weekend along the Wasatch Front with the arrival of a reinforcing shot of cold air that will push slightly farther west than yesterday’s.  We, however, will see nothing in the way of precipitation, as all of that action is well to our east.  A few more clouds tomorrow and light breezes is all that will accompany the cooler temperatures.  Night time temps tomorrow night through the weekend will dip below freezing in mountain valleys and some of the colder low valleys as well. Time to cover up or harvest the plants.
Next week, the closed cut-off low pressure system that has been sitting off the California coast will gradually move inland.  Over Southern California, Southern Utah, and Arizona.  Not too much dynamics or moisture associated with this system but it will bring us a slight chance of showers–with the best chance for precip mostly to our south.  The timing on this looks to be about Wednesday of next week.  Southerly flow that develops ahead of the low may warm us up back to near average by Tuesday



Long term:
Everything beyond the next 7 days is very vague at this point but there is nothing to suggest that the blocking high pressure ridge parked off the coast of British Columbia will be going anywhere anytime soon.  So our best chances for snow will remain with cut-off low pressure systems or weak, cool systems that periodically drop down the east side of the ridge.  El Nino, which for a couple weeks, was looking a little stronger in the models, now looks weaker again.  The CPC has now given only 55% chance of development.  I was never as sold on it’s development as they were so I’m not too surprised.  I also believe that an ENSO neutral year or a very weak El Nino is better for Northern Utah’s chances at seeing average or above precipitation.  La Nina has a tendency to favor the Northwest, El Nino – the southwest, but an ENSO neutral year often aims the jet stream more at the mid-latitudes (including the Wasatch).  Teleconnections begin to play a significant role in our weather this time of year, but as of now, most of those are in neutral states and forecasted to stay that way for at least the next ten days or so.  We’ll keep an eye on those as well as the MJO over the next few weeks to see if they show signs of livening up, whether good or bad.
For the month of October, it’s looking mostly dry until at least mid-month.  After that, the CFSv2 suggest near average precipitation through the end of the month. So overall, I think we’ll be below normal precip-wise and near normal temperature-wise for the month barring some drastic change in the pattern.  Not too much excitement as of yet, but remember, things can change in a hurry once the Pacific steps on the gas.


 As far as seasonal outlook, not much reason to change my original snow forecast for the season of about normal.  If a weak El Nino does indeed develop, the southern parts of Utah may be more likely to jump above average with the North slightly below.  But I’m guessing that El Nino will be mostly a non-factor for us this winter so most areas of Utah will have equal chances of seeing above/below average snowfall.  Sounds a bit like a cop-out to say just an average year, but the best we can do is call it as we see it, and right now there isn’t anything out there to suggest otherwise.  Besides, I think after last winter, we’d all be quite happy with an average snow year, right?

Utah Climatic Summary September 2012

CLICK HERE FOR A DETAILED LOOK AT SEPTEMBERS CLIMATIC SUMMARY 

The Latest 2012 Global Climate Update

The average global temperature for August 2012 was more than 1° Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average, according to the latest monthly analysis from the National Climatic Data Center, making it the fourth-warmest August since record keeping began in 1880. August 2012 also marked the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th-century average.
The map above shows August temperatures relative to average across the globe. Red indicates temperatures up to 7° Fahrenheit (4° Celsius) warmer than the 1981–2010 average, and blue indicates temperatures up to 7° Fahrenheit cooler than the average. Most areas of the world experienced higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including far northeastern North America, central and Southern Europe, and east central Asia. Meanwhile, parts of Siberia were notably cooler than average.
The August 2012 global land area temperature tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, at more than 1.6° Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average. For the oceans, the August global sea surface temperature was close to 1°Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average, tying with 2006 as the fifth warmest for August on record. It was also the greatest above-average ocean temperature for any month since July 2010.
Additionally, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that, Arctic sea ice shrank to 1.58 million square miles on August 26, dipping below the smallest extent on record, which occurred on September 18, 2007, at 1.61 million square miles. By the end of the month, sea ice extent dropped to 1.42 million square miles, with the melt season expected to last until mid-September. The six lowest sea ice extents have all occurred in the past six years.
Map by Tim Loomis, NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab, based on temperature anomaly data from the National Climatic Data Center. Caption adapted by Susan Osborne from the August 2012 Global Climate Summary from the National Climatic Data Center. Reviewed by Jake Crouch.