February 2013 Climatic Summary For Utah

  It was a cold and Snowy February in spots around Utah, click on the link for detailed info from the National Weather Service.

Click Here For Detailed Summary

The Inversion is Gone, but Heavy Snows in Tap

      As you can see from the picture below most of the smog and junk from the last 2 weeks is out of here, as if we have not  payed the price with this inversion already we are going to add insult to injury and bring in a potent snowstorm today.

   

 As you can see the NWS has winter weather advisories and warnings in place.

Here is UDOT'S take on the approaching storm

So lets get down to business with snow amounts, today-tonight's storm keeps trending snowier in all models, and slows the front down across N. Utah that is why the nws has upgraded the nothern wasatch mountians and valleys to a warning, click here to visit the nws page current thinking for the valleys is that Farmignton north will get the goods prob. anywhere from 5-8"+, but if the front stalls a little bit further south then places like Bountiful and Possibly SLC will receive more, for the rest of the Wasatch Front my guess would say 3-6 inches, but as i said the last 2 models have generated quite a bit more, so don't be surprised to see 8+. 

A bit of a break Monday afteernoon and night then the 2nd storm moves in, this will be a diffrent type of storm which will be a warm advection, which is when there is no front associated with it, just lifting of the low levels of the atmosphere, these events are hard to predict amounts but current thinking is 3-6"+ in the valleys, with a another light snow event on Wednesday. Enjoy

As for the Wasatch Mountains, looks like a good 8-14" with this 1st storm, them a 5-10" with the 2nd storm on Tuesday which adds up to 1-2' feet of snow, great skiing days on Monday-Thursday!

Coldest in nearly 20 years in Utah Tonight

CLICK HERE TO GET THE LATEST TEMPERATURE FROM SLC INT L AIRPORT

Winter Driving Conditions Expected Thursday Eve.-Friday

There is a good chance of Very Dangerous Road Conditions for the Thursday evening commute as well as Friday morning's, below is a graphic from UDOT concerning this potential!

 

Statewide Road Snow Event
Thursday and Friday

 

Snow amounts: Right now computer models are all over the place with regards to amounts, i will go with  4-8"+ in the valleys with the possabilty of much more if the DLE (dreaded lake effect ) sets up over a certain area, Benchs 6-12"+ and Mountains 1-2'+. Enjoy

Inversion's for a few more days then SNOW!

 

 How cold has it been at the Salt Lake City Airport over the past week? Temperatures have averaged 6 to 16 degrees below normal since December 29th. The biggest departure from normal was January 5th, with the temperature averaging 16 degrees below normal.

Pic taken at noon on Sunday the 6th

Just a quick note on this inversion As PM2.5 levels continue to climb this week, it would be interesting to see how this event compares to others during the past decade.  Based on the PM concentrations above, it seems this is an event for Utah and Salt Lake Counties that is getting up there amongst the worst events over the past decade.

 CLICK HERE FOR ANIMATED MAP OF LOCAL AIR POLLUTION

Alright now for the good stuff, 

Attention  turns to the next system which is timing its frontal passage for late Thursday/early Friday. We may start to see warm advection precip falling primarily in the high elevations ahead of the system as early as Tuesday. Accumulations should be light on Tuesday and Wednesday until the main system approaches on Thursday. As of right now this system is looking very solid on both the GFS and Euro. It doesn’t have the most moisture in the world, but it has a strong front, lots of cold air and instability behind the front, and relatively slow movement. Not comfortable at this point guessing exact amounts but at least a moderate storm is likely.

 

Thursday at noon it should be snowing at a good clip

GFS and Euro both show a secondary system dropping into the area sometime around Sunday. This system will likely not be quite as strong but will bring in another shot of cold air and snow.

Sunday night's forecast

The other effect this system on Thursday/Friday will have on Utah weather will be to scour out the inversions. Don’t think we’ll get enough air flow to do much damage to the cold pools on Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Thursday we should see the cold air and pollution start to blow out. Again, this system is of a cold nature, so don’t expect the valleys to warm up too much, but at least we’ll be able to see across the valleys again by Friday.

Hopefully this all pans out and relives us from this unhealthy air, we will update as we get closer!  In the meantime head up and hit the slopes which still have great conditions, and believe it or not it is warmer at the resorts than the Wasatch front. Enjoy


Long range:
CFSv2 and long-range GFS and Euro point to possibility of us returning to ridging during the third week of January (15-21). Uber-long range models are hinting at this ridging breaking down during the last week of the month with the storm door possibly opening. Now this is all very speculative but it’s always worth noting. December long-range forecasts turned out to be pretty accurate so . . . who knows!

Fresh Pow for Christmas in Utah

      Systems continue to push into the west coast as the large parent low spins off the Pac NW coastline. Everything still on track with previous forecast. Main change is that short-range models are now within range and bringing in the details, so we have greater confidence in snowfall amounts. We will have breezy conditions today with a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching systems. This flow should scour out the cold pools (inversions) in the valleys and allow them to warm up. Clouds should also be on the increase this afternoon
.
      Tonight we have the first weak wave bring mostly mountain snow showers after about midnight. This will primarily affect the mountains north of I-80 and could bring 1-3″ of fresh snow for tomorrow. We will then see a break in the action Sunday afternoon / evening as the next, more potent, system enters the area.
This stronger system will bring snow to the area late Sunday night and the snow should continue all day on Monday before tapering off on Monday night. The system is currently progged to track perfectly to bring the entire Wasatch a good period of both frontal and post-frontal snowfall. This is by no means a major snowfall for the Wasatch, but everything looks good for a decent period of snow. The lower valleys might start as rain or rain/snow mix early Monday morning before changing to all snow as the front approaches late Monday morning. Valleys can expect 1-4″ of snow. The Wasatch should see .75-1.25″ of QPF and average snow ratios of 15:1 — this translates to about 10-18″ of snow for the high elevations. Not too shabby! The other concern will be travel conditions around the state, with Christmas eve being a busy travel day this could hamper travel to grandmas house. As of now this is what  UDOT is saying: ****Please check back Saturday afternoon for road weather impacts as a stronger storm moves through Utah Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).  Valley routes and the I-15 corridor are expected to see periods of light road snow while mountain routes will see moderate accumulations of road snow Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).***Click Here to go to UDOT's Road Weather Alerts

Here is the latest model-generated snowfall forecast for the Western CONUS through Christmas day:



      We should clear out on Christmas Day for blue bird conditions. Wednesday we’ll see the next system approach with snow likely Wednesday night-Thursday night, perhaps lasting to Friday. At this time this looks like a moderate storm. Great news for all the holiday skiers who are traveling to Utah for some freshies. But it could cause some travel headaches.

     The Cottonwoods and PC continue to do alright this year and are just above average snowpack, but the Northern Wasatch is struggling at less than 50% of normal in places so lets hope we can get some good snows going in their direction as well.

Plenty of Snow in Utah, More to come !

   WOW what a storm a Powder day on tap for sure!  Looks like the Cottonwoods have close to a foot and Park City area  received 5-10″. Wasatch front Valleys have seen anywhere between 1"-6" and benches between 4"-12". And it is still snowing . . Additional accumulations of 1-3″ in the Cottonwoods and PC is likely. Here’s a look at the Snowbird Snowcam (which measures up to 16″):

Pic. courtesy  Sheryn Shaw on Saturday morning

  
Our next storm will arrive on Sunday and as i stated in my last post, we will have to watch this one and of course it looks a little stronger than before,  it still looks like it will move in for Sunday through Monday. This is an advection precipitation event and favors the Northern Wasatch. NWS has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch already to highlight this. This system looks much better now than it did the other day, so we’re feeling optimistic. Another 10-20″ can be expected for Sunday-Monday in the mountains with up to 2 feet in favored locations north of I-80. Wasatch front Valleys should receive another 1"-3" + ,benches should receive 2"-5" +. Lots of Snow! Monday should be an awesome powder day!

      The next system moves in late Tuesday and drags a front through the area early Wednesday morning. This system is fairly potent as well as very cold. There will be potential for lake effect snow behind the front on Wednesday.  We’re looking at potential for additional significant accumulations of 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with wasatch front  valleys 6"+ and benches 12", hopefully the models do not flip flop on us and it produces a BIG snow event, Keep your Fingers Crossed! 

     After Wednesday it looks like we’ll have at least a 4 day break with the possibility of urban Fog, next chance for snow will be Christmas eve or Christmas day. But let’s focus on the a very snowy short term for now!

Powder Days Ahead

Who is ready for some more POW

     Tonight-Saturday the Wasatch mountains should receive 6-12" of snow and the valleys might squeeze out 2" while the benches might receive 4".

      Sunday -Sunday night was once a pretty good looking storm according to models a few days back, now most likely a warm advection type storm, which means no front crossing the area, so looks like the Wasatch will receive another 4"-8" of snow and the valleys maybe another 2"-3" and benches 3"-5" Poss. more will have to watch this one.

Tuesday-Wednesday still looks like a very potent storm for the area, a strong cold front blasts thru around the evening commute tuesday, might have to watch this one as temps will fall in the 20's behind the front so accumulating  road snow and ice will be a good bet, right now i am thinking 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with valleys 6"+ and benches 12"+.  Plus there is a chance of DLE (dreaded lake effect ) Wednesday morning.

If you have not tuned up the Snow blower now is the time!




 


Stay tuned will update tomorrow! 

Promising Signs of a Much Needed Pattern Change

      Snow has already started falling lightly in many mountain areas. Should be off and on but picking up throughout the day with the best chance for accumulations occurring later tonight. Just a few inches in the Wasatch with up to 6″ in areas favored by a northwest flow like the Cottonwoods. Just not enough moisture to work with for it to be anything major.

     Another even weaker system on Monday night will freshen things up with another 1-4″ in the Wasatch… Wednesday’s system is looking stronger but is now progged by all major models to drop down the West coast and move inland tracking over southern Utah. So the Wasatch will likely only see another round of light accumulations.
The whole while it will be cold with modest warming between waves. This will allow for good snow-making so resorts that need to supplement their bases can do so.

     The next week will be nice in that we’ll see frequent systems but disappointing as they are all weak. As a forecaster, it’s Week 2 that’s looking especially promising starting around mid-month (next weekend). It’s still far off, but there’s been a lot of model consistency for cold, stronger storms to start moving into the Pacific Northwest and dropping into the Great Basin. Stick with us over the next week, enjoy these little storms, and we’ll keep you posted on the status of the big boys. Keep the good vibes going… I don’t think I could take another backtracking of the models.

   Below are current model runs of projected water amounts!  

Saturday the 15th

Sunday the 16th

 

Tuesday the 18th

Old Man Winter Will Be Busting Down The Door

For the last 5 days or so models have been showing the front entering Northern Utah late Thursday evening and moving the SLC area around midnight. Now both the NAM and GFS are showing a delay in the onset of precipitation until late morning Friday. Not a ton of moisture with the initial front but could see a brief period of moderate to heavy snow in the mountains and lighter snow in the valley during the day Friday. There may be a break after the front on Friday evening before the instability and moisture associated with the cold pool move into the area. Friday night and Saturday we’ll see the best dynamics and the best orographics for widespread moderate to heavy snowfall. There will be a good chance for lake enhancement or a lake effect band downwind of the lake. Best guess right now would be east-southeast of the lake. Over southern Davis County and Northern Salt lake County toward Park City. We’ll have to monitor the lake effect situation as we get closer as it is notoriously difficult to forecast.

When we look at the two aspects of this system, the front and instability behind the front, we can split the system into two separate parts to make our snowfall predictions. The initial front on Friday looks like it will put down 4-8″ for the mountains and only a couple inches in the valleys. Then the cold pool on Saturday has potential to drop up to 6″ in the valleys with more than that possible under lake effect band if one sets up. The mountains will likely see over a foot of snow on Friday night-Saturday night time frame. There isn’t incredible moisture associated with the system. But the direction of the flow aloft will allow for good orographics and the cold air will create very high snow:water ratios so just 1 inch of liquid qpf will likely yield 18 inches of snow.

With all that in mind, by midday Sunday, we expect the following totals:
1-2 feet above 7,000 ft. (with possibly more in orographically favored areas or under lake effect band)
6-12 inches in mountain valleys / high benches of Wasatch Front
Up to 6″ on valley floors

Next week is still a little unclear but it’s looking like we may be clipped by another system mid-week however it looks weaker/warmer. We’ll keep our focus on the storm at hand for now.

Snow, and lots of it, looking likely late this week!

Models have been in fairly good agreement for several days but confidence continues to increase as we move closer to the event as the global models are less likely to back track from here on out. After a few more warm, dry days, the weather will change dramatically to a very cold, snowy pattern. Timing still looks like the initial front will move through Thursday night and snow levels will drop Friday to all valley floors. Good orographics and decent moisture behind the front will allow for snow to continue in the mountains and on and off in the valleys for much of Friday night and Saturday. Lake effect snow is also a very good bet with cold, moist air traveling over the relatively warm GSL–this is very hard to forecast so we’ll have to wait until we get closer before we make any exact lake effect forecasts, but be aware that the possibility exists for it.

Later we’ll have a full update where we’ll take a first look at potential snowfall totals. Hint: they have potential to be significant for all elevations.

Looking like we may see a couple more systems trying to dive into the area next week as well. The ski areas should open on time at least!

CPC showing 50% chance of above normal precip for Nov 9th-13th.

Possible Snow Tonight ?

TUESDAYS MORNING COMMUTE

       ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE  
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL DIG FURTHER  
  AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. A SWATH OF  
  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WHICH  
  WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH  
  THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL SUPPORT LARGE DENDRITES AND  
  SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES. THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS BAND  
  DEVELOP? CURRENT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL DEVELOP  
  BETWEEN WENDOVER...THE WASATCH FRONT AND EVANSTON. THIS COULD AND  
  LIKELY WILL SHIFT SOME. BUT WHEREVER THE BAND DEVELOPS...SIGNIFICANT  
  IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DEFINITELY CHECK LATER FORECASTS AS THE  
  WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.  
   
  ALSO DURING THIS TIME...THE SURGE IN COLDER AIR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
  COULD SUPPORT A LEGITIMATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM THE  
  GREAT SALT LAKE INTO THE TOOELE VALLEY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE VALLEY. 
   
  ANOTHER RELATIVE BREAK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
  AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PASSES THE REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED  
  PROCESSES DECAY. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON  
  INSTABILITY SO MENTIONED THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   
  THE THIRD ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WARM  
  ADVECTION IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF  
  PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN  
  AND CENTRAL UTAH. TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE SUPPORT THE  
  THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AGAIN THURSDAY  
  MORNING. ENJOY

Wet Week Ahead

Everything is set and ready to go.  Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.

           Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
       Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area.  All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area.  Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening.  Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.

       Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch.  We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model).  Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.

Accumulations:
      Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday.  Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″.  Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.