The Inversion is Gone, but Heavy Snows in Tap

      As you can see from the picture below most of the smog and junk from the last 2 weeks is out of here, as if we have not  payed the price with this inversion already we are going to add insult to injury and bring in a potent snowstorm today.

   

 As you can see the NWS has winter weather advisories and warnings in place.

Here is UDOT'S take on the approaching storm

So lets get down to business with snow amounts, today-tonight's storm keeps trending snowier in all models, and slows the front down across N. Utah that is why the nws has upgraded the nothern wasatch mountians and valleys to a warning, click here to visit the nws page current thinking for the valleys is that Farmignton north will get the goods prob. anywhere from 5-8"+, but if the front stalls a little bit further south then places like Bountiful and Possibly SLC will receive more, for the rest of the Wasatch Front my guess would say 3-6 inches, but as i said the last 2 models have generated quite a bit more, so don't be surprised to see 8+. 

A bit of a break Monday afteernoon and night then the 2nd storm moves in, this will be a diffrent type of storm which will be a warm advection, which is when there is no front associated with it, just lifting of the low levels of the atmosphere, these events are hard to predict amounts but current thinking is 3-6"+ in the valleys, with a another light snow event on Wednesday. Enjoy

As for the Wasatch Mountains, looks like a good 8-14" with this 1st storm, them a 5-10" with the 2nd storm on Tuesday which adds up to 1-2' feet of snow, great skiing days on Monday-Thursday!

Winter Driving Conditions Expected Thursday Eve.-Friday

There is a good chance of Very Dangerous Road Conditions for the Thursday evening commute as well as Friday morning's, below is a graphic from UDOT concerning this potential!

 

Statewide Road Snow Event
Thursday and Friday

 

Snow amounts: Right now computer models are all over the place with regards to amounts, i will go with  4-8"+ in the valleys with the possabilty of much more if the DLE (dreaded lake effect ) sets up over a certain area, Benchs 6-12"+ and Mountains 1-2'+. Enjoy

Fresh Pow for Christmas in Utah

      Systems continue to push into the west coast as the large parent low spins off the Pac NW coastline. Everything still on track with previous forecast. Main change is that short-range models are now within range and bringing in the details, so we have greater confidence in snowfall amounts. We will have breezy conditions today with a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching systems. This flow should scour out the cold pools (inversions) in the valleys and allow them to warm up. Clouds should also be on the increase this afternoon
.
      Tonight we have the first weak wave bring mostly mountain snow showers after about midnight. This will primarily affect the mountains north of I-80 and could bring 1-3″ of fresh snow for tomorrow. We will then see a break in the action Sunday afternoon / evening as the next, more potent, system enters the area.
This stronger system will bring snow to the area late Sunday night and the snow should continue all day on Monday before tapering off on Monday night. The system is currently progged to track perfectly to bring the entire Wasatch a good period of both frontal and post-frontal snowfall. This is by no means a major snowfall for the Wasatch, but everything looks good for a decent period of snow. The lower valleys might start as rain or rain/snow mix early Monday morning before changing to all snow as the front approaches late Monday morning. Valleys can expect 1-4″ of snow. The Wasatch should see .75-1.25″ of QPF and average snow ratios of 15:1 — this translates to about 10-18″ of snow for the high elevations. Not too shabby! The other concern will be travel conditions around the state, with Christmas eve being a busy travel day this could hamper travel to grandmas house. As of now this is what  UDOT is saying: ****Please check back Saturday afternoon for road weather impacts as a stronger storm moves through Utah Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).  Valley routes and the I-15 corridor are expected to see periods of light road snow while mountain routes will see moderate accumulations of road snow Sunday evening through Monday (Christmas Eve).***Click Here to go to UDOT's Road Weather Alerts

Here is the latest model-generated snowfall forecast for the Western CONUS through Christmas day:



      We should clear out on Christmas Day for blue bird conditions. Wednesday we’ll see the next system approach with snow likely Wednesday night-Thursday night, perhaps lasting to Friday. At this time this looks like a moderate storm. Great news for all the holiday skiers who are traveling to Utah for some freshies. But it could cause some travel headaches.

     The Cottonwoods and PC continue to do alright this year and are just above average snowpack, but the Northern Wasatch is struggling at less than 50% of normal in places so lets hope we can get some good snows going in their direction as well.

Plenty of Snow in Utah, More to come !

   WOW what a storm a Powder day on tap for sure!  Looks like the Cottonwoods have close to a foot and Park City area  received 5-10″. Wasatch front Valleys have seen anywhere between 1"-6" and benches between 4"-12". And it is still snowing . . Additional accumulations of 1-3″ in the Cottonwoods and PC is likely. Here’s a look at the Snowbird Snowcam (which measures up to 16″):

Pic. courtesy  Sheryn Shaw on Saturday morning

  
Our next storm will arrive on Sunday and as i stated in my last post, we will have to watch this one and of course it looks a little stronger than before,  it still looks like it will move in for Sunday through Monday. This is an advection precipitation event and favors the Northern Wasatch. NWS has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch already to highlight this. This system looks much better now than it did the other day, so we’re feeling optimistic. Another 10-20″ can be expected for Sunday-Monday in the mountains with up to 2 feet in favored locations north of I-80. Wasatch front Valleys should receive another 1"-3" + ,benches should receive 2"-5" +. Lots of Snow! Monday should be an awesome powder day!

      The next system moves in late Tuesday and drags a front through the area early Wednesday morning. This system is fairly potent as well as very cold. There will be potential for lake effect snow behind the front on Wednesday.  We’re looking at potential for additional significant accumulations of 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with wasatch front  valleys 6"+ and benches 12", hopefully the models do not flip flop on us and it produces a BIG snow event, Keep your Fingers Crossed! 

     After Wednesday it looks like we’ll have at least a 4 day break with the possibility of urban Fog, next chance for snow will be Christmas eve or Christmas day. But let’s focus on the a very snowy short term for now!

Powder Days Ahead

Who is ready for some more POW

     Tonight-Saturday the Wasatch mountains should receive 6-12" of snow and the valleys might squeeze out 2" while the benches might receive 4".

      Sunday -Sunday night was once a pretty good looking storm according to models a few days back, now most likely a warm advection type storm, which means no front crossing the area, so looks like the Wasatch will receive another 4"-8" of snow and the valleys maybe another 2"-3" and benches 3"-5" Poss. more will have to watch this one.

Tuesday-Wednesday still looks like a very potent storm for the area, a strong cold front blasts thru around the evening commute tuesday, might have to watch this one as temps will fall in the 20's behind the front so accumulating  road snow and ice will be a good bet, right now i am thinking 1'-2' + for the Wasatch mountains with valleys 6"+ and benches 12"+.  Plus there is a chance of DLE (dreaded lake effect ) Wednesday morning.

If you have not tuned up the Snow blower now is the time!




 


Stay tuned will update tomorrow! 

Wet Week Ahead

Everything is set and ready to go.  Models continue to be in very good agreement for the most part through Thursday. Utah is primed for its first winter like pattern.

           Looking at all the charts this morning I’m feeling comfortable with the forecast which went back and forth on the strength of these systems all last week but settled in on a solution on Friday and for the most part has stayed on that solution since Friday.
       Today we’ll have the first of the stronger waves of precipitation approach the area.  All models now don’t show the bulk of the precip arriving until tonight, but showers will still be possible all day with warm, moist flow over the area.  Tuesday morning, snow levels will start to finally lower below 8,000 feet, possibly falling as low as benches and even valley floors by Tuesday evening.  Snow will start accumulating in the mountains on Tuesday and it should snow off and on through Thursday as reinforcing shots of energy rotate into the region.

       Wednesday will be colder as the cold pool of the parent Low works its way into the Wasatch.  We should see snow levels fall all the way to valley floors according to the 12z run of the NAM (computer model).  Grassy surfaces may see light accumulations but warm pavement temps should keep road accumulations minimal.
By Thursday night, we’ll start to dry out as a ridge builds in for next weekend, though temps should remain cool.

Accumulations:
      Right now we’re still thinking 8-16″ total above 8,000 ft for Monday-Thursday.  Mountain valleys will probably see 4-8″.  Benches of Wasatch could see a couple inches later in the event.

 

Old Man Winter is knocking on the door . . .

            Everything is starting to look a little clearer through at least Wednesday of the upcoming week.  The Wasatch and adjacent Wasatch Front will see its first real winter pattern this week with one large Low sending in reinforcing impulses every 24 hours starting today.Click here for latest western satellite.     Today’s impulse will do little more than bring in some clouds, winds, and slightly cooler temps.  Tomorrow’s will be a little stronger with a slight chance for showers.  The first real threat for accumulating snowfall will start on Monday in the mountains with rain showers in the valleys below 6,000 ft.  At this time it looks like rain and snow will increase in intensity on Monday into Monday night before clearing out Tuesday morning a bit before a reinforcing wave of energy picks things up a bit on Tuesday evening through Wednesday.  This latter impulse could be strong and cold enough to bring snow levels down to SLC valley floors, or at the very least, to the bench locations.

 Also of note is that the GSL temp is very warm which might bring us a lake effect storm! Here is the latest info for the lake:

WRF-NMM LAKE TEMPERATURE CALCULATION
LAST UPDATE: 05:45 UTC 10/20/2012
WEEKLY AVERAGED AVHRR-DERIVED TEMPERATURES       
7-DAY MEAN ENDING 10/15/2012
NORTH ARM
16.28 C
SOUTH ARM
15.77 C

CLIMATOLOGICAL LAKE TEMPERATURE                 
13.5 C
LAKE TEMPERATURE USED IN WRF
14.7 C

TLAKE EDITED IN WRF-NMM AT: 05:45:06 UTC 10/20/2012

As you can see the Avg water temp this time of year is 13.5 c (56.3 F) but with the HOT summer we had it is sitting at a mean of 16.0 (60.8). if we drop to -1c (30.1 F) we will be cold enough for lake enhanced or lake effect squalls, but there is a few more ingredients needed to make this happen as described below.

 

 Lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow is more complicated than just cold air within northwest flow moving over the warmer Great Salt Lake. The necessary ingredients include sufficient over-lake temperature differential (i.e. greater than 17C from the surface to 10,000 ft MSL or 700 mb), sufficient distance of air flowing across the lake (northwest or north flow provides this across the longer portion of the Great Salt Lake ), minimal change of wind speed or direction in the boundary layer, deeply unstable boundary layer (top layer above 600 mb level preferred for sufficient convective growth), adequate steering flow to develop banding, and over-water surface convergence which is often driven by a land breeze circulation under radiational cooling at night (air flowing toward the warmer water from the colder surrounding land). The lake bands can be further enhanced when they are sufficiently deep and extend well inland resulting in upslope flow of the moist air along the west slope of the Wasatch Range. For a given event the ingredients for lake-effect and lake-enhanced precipitation varies with respect to the potential for generating snow. This will determine if a lake band or lake enhanced area of precipitation will develop and how long and intense the snowfall will be.

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Rain looking likely Thursday-Friday

       A LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 
  TOMORROW BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD BEGINNING 
  THURSDAY...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE 
  WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH TOMORROW...ALLOWING 
  FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH 
  INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER 
  COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. INCREASED 
  CLOUDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DECREASING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE 
  SOUTH BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MAXES IN THE NORTH WILL BE AS HIGH 
  AS 10F ABOVE CLIMO AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. 
   
       THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH 
  FRIDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND 
  SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT CLOUD 
  COVER AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK AROUND CLIMO 
  OVER THE NORTH...AND UP TO 10F BELOW THOSE VALUES OVER SOUTHERN 
  UTAH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE 
  AT HIGH PEAKS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE 
  SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
  SHOWING BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS 
  HIGHER THAN USUAL.  
   
  MODELS INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA ON 
  SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. 
  COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
  PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE 
  RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT AND GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY MONDAY 
  BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BEGINNING AT DAY 7.  
   

 

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More of the white stuff

As I said yesterday there would be more of this white stuff overnight, well looks like Snowbird received a fair amount of it above about 9500 ft.

 

 Click here to check out Snowbird's Snow Cam

 Click here to see Snowbird's latest Mountain Cam's

1st Snow of the season in the mountains

Looks like we have has are 1st snow of the season in the Wasatch mountains, it is just a dusting so far, I do expect a little more through the day and overnight!