November Outlook

 

It is the dawn of a new month and an exciting one at that — November is generally when the Wasatch range starts building its snowpack and ski resorts throughout the area start turning their lifts. October was a month of teasers for the most part with the occasional dusting high up in the first two weeks of the month and then the third week we saw our first major system. That system favored the Northern Wasatch so PowMow, Snowbasin, and Wolf Mountain all received enough snow (40″ +) put down what will likely be a permanent base. It also allowed for some of the die hards to get up there for the first turns of the season. However the Central and Southern Wasatch only saw 8-14″, and after a couple weeks of warm, dry weather, they will have to start from scratch.

Just had a look at the latest12z model suite (computer models)and they've been consistent on a storm for next weekend that has potential to be a significant snow producer for the Wasatch and should bring some snow to valley floors as well, including another shot at lake effect snow. There are still questions as to the exact track and strength of the system. EC is a little farther west with the system, bringing the best dynamics to the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. The GFS drops it into the Great Basin with more favorable dynamics for Utah. Either way, we should see some snow in the ‘Satch with high snow:water ratios, so it could pile up rather quickly, the cold airmass will allow for resorts to make snow around the clock starting on Friday. Timing currently looks like frontal passage late Thursday night, so Thursday will likely be mild and windy. Friday we’ll see the bulk of the precipitation but it may continue right into Saturday.


The rest of November becomes little more than guesswork, as any meteorologist worth their salt will tell you that long-range forecasting is little more than speculation. But it’s worth looking at. My best estimate based on a combination of upstream factors and the MJO is that we will have a dry first week of November (certain), stormy second week (likely), dryer third week (maybe?), and a return to unsettled weather for the last week of the month (who knows!). Again, this is just an educated guess so don’t go planning your Thanksgiving travel plans based on what I just said. Everything beyond about the 10th of November is totally up in the air, so to speak. What is encouraging is that last November we were sitting on the east side of blocking ridge that didn’t budge until January, and the only snow we saw early in the season was from weak systems diving down the east side of the ridge and clipping the area…. This year, however, there is still an Eastern Pacific high but it isn’t nearly as stubborn and is allowing for more progressive systems to enter the area. So hopefully we won’t fall into the same pattern that plagued us for so much of last season.
So there you have it! A first look at the month of November.

Keep your fingers crossed and we’ll update daily as we approach next week’s pattern change.