Showers likely tonight through Monday

  QUICK LOOK AT COMPUTER MODELS /WHATS AVAILABLE/ MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY 
  MORE SOUTHEAST TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO NEVADA 
  TODAY/TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT EXPECTED TO TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE 
  NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REACHES FULL 
  STRENGTH TONIGHT...BEST AREA FOR MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES 
  TO PEG THE FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STATE DURING 
  THAT TIME. CLOSED NATURE OF LOW AND INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
  COMBINED WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM 
  OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOWEVER. STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE 
  NORTHWEST/WEST UTAH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY 
  AND CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN EVENT...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP 
  MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH COINCIDENT WITH 
  GREATEST INSTABILITY AND COLD CORE TRACK. 

BELOW IS A FORECAST MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION, NOTICE ON THE

 LOOP BELOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP. STAYS OVER THE WEST DESERT, 

SO TIME WILL TELL IF WE GET A GOOD RAIN EVENT OR JUST A FEW SHOWERS

WHICH IS THE WAY I AM LEANING TOWARDS NOW.

 

CLICK HERE FOR FUTURE RADAR 

There is a  weak closed low that is sitting over the coast of Washington, which results from a weather feature that meteorologists call a coherent tropopause disturbance, or CTD.  A CTD is a localized cyclonic vortex, which is associated with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and is strongest at the tropopause.  The tropopause separates the stratosphere from the troposphere. 

The CTD and closed low move into Nevada by tomorrow morning

 A different perspective at this time is provided below by a 3-D colored representation of the tropopause, with cool colors indicating a lower tropopause and warm colors indicating a higher tropopause.  Note how the tropopause is locally depressed where the CTD and closed low are found over Nevada.

 Thus, as the low approaches Utah, temperatures in the upper-troposphere will fall.  This, combined with large-scale rising motion ahead of the low, will act to destabilize the atmosphere and initiate some showers and thunderstorms.  As a result, although we are still under the influence of a large-scale upper-level ridge, we have a chance of some isolated showers and thunderstorms today and scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.

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